← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Russell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 41% | 2.45 |
| Mansfield win | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burton −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Owen Dodgson · Burton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 55' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 81' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 89' | 🟨 | James Jones · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 90.00 | 1581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1540.50 | 1523.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.17 | -52.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 43.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.12 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |