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Barnsley 4–3 Lincoln

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win42%2.28
Lincoln win29%3.25
Draw28%3.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lincoln −0.2550%1.93
Barnsley −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley
25'🟨Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley
33'⚽Adam Phillips · Barnsley
53'⚽Georgie Gent · Barnsley
63'🟨Dom Jefferies · Lincoln
67'⚽Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln
76'⚽Max Watters · Barnsley
84'⚽Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln
90'⚽Jovon Makama · Lincoln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
5Shots12
5On target5
2Corners6
7Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarnsleyLincoln
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.70
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOakwell
coach days0.00486.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.602.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.48
elo1545.811546.00
elo momentum (last 5)3.91-0.22
eye test v10.34-0.38
eye trend v1-0.150.30
first sub minute (last 10)60.4056.30
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.64
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.620.67
league points49.0043.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0069.20
possession avg (last 5)56.0047.80
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.280.14
season ppg1.481.30
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.009.60
skill v10.07-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
state index0.15-0.00
sterile dominance v10.51-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40