β EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Mar 1, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Bourne
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wrexham win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Bolton win | 28% | 3.38 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wrexham β0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Bolton β0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand