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Northampton 1–2 Barnsley

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win49%2.05
Draw27%3.62
Northampton win25%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley +0.550%1.94
Northampton +0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley
59'⚽Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley
68'🟨Dara Costelloe · Northampton
73'🟨Stephen Humphrys · Barnsley
76'🟨Josh Earl · Barnsley
78'⚽Sam Hoskins · Northampton
86'🟨Kelechi Nwakali · Barnsley
87'🟥Maël de Gevigney · Barnsley

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots9
6On target5
5Corners3
5Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorthamptonBarnsley
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.610.56
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSixfields Stadium
coach days86.00330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.533.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.390.50
elo1510.631534.78
elo momentum (last 5)10.09-12.28
eye test v1-1.380.03
eye trend v10.59-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)57.6059.80
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.35
keeper form v10.670.71
league points36.0046.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)58.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)42.2054.40
rest days3.203.30
scorer concentration0.310.24
season ppg1.131.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.6011.80
skill v1-2.220.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.80
state index-0.12-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.730.42
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20