← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 |
| Burton win | 22% | 4.58 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burton −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tomas Kalinauskas · Burton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Lincoln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 479.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1558.55 | 1527.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.66 | 9.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |