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Blackpool 3–1 Crawley Town

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win58%1.65
Draw23%4.28
Crawley Town win20%5.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool −0.7553%1.82
Crawley Town −0.7547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.62
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Niall Ennis · Blackpool
18'⚽Niall Ennis · Blackpool
30'⚽Kami Doyle · Crawley Town
32'🟥Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool
45'🟨Lee Evans · Blackpool
57'🟨Will Swan · Crawley Town
79'⚽ (pen)Lee Evans · Blackpool

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots14
5On target5
5Corners2
5Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolCrawley Town
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days174.00144.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.208.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.15
dominance (last 5)0.470.49
elo1584.891469.79
elo momentum (last 5)8.257.58
eye test v10.010.02
eye trend v1-0.180.42
first sub minute (last 10)59.2057.20
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.780.61
league points41.0029.00
league rank13.0022.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2048.60
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.180.21
season ppg1.320.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.0013.00
skill v1-0.08-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index0.03-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80