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Shrewsbury 0–1 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Tue, Feb 18, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Oldham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win44%2.19
Draw30%3.20
Shrewsbury win26%3.73

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield +0.2552%1.87
Shrewsbury +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.54
Over38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury
59'🟨Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield
76'🟨Funso Ojo · Shrewsbury
82'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
90'🟨Callum Stewart · Shrewsbury
90'🟨Dominic Gape · Shrewsbury
90'🟨Joe Hodge · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots14
1On target4
8Corners6
18Fouls11
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricShrewsburyHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.770.54
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueThe Croud Meadow
coach days109.00293.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.414.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.410.58
elo1511.421538.83
elo momentum (last 5)10.15-20.73
eye test v1-0.63-0.28
eye trend v10.370.50
first sub minute (last 10)61.1043.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.710.65
league points27.0052.00
league rank23.006.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)56.8071.20
possession avg (last 5)40.0057.20
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.200.18
season ppg0.871.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.804.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6013.80
skill v1-2.53-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad ageβ€”25.36
state index-0.14-0.02
sterile dominance v1-1.040.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00