← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Bannister
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 40% | 2.41 |
| Lincoln win | 30% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Keanu Baccus · Mansfield |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jovon Makama · Lincoln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Lincoln |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Lincoln |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Maris · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zachary Jeacock · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 1570.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1553.55 | 1537.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.64 | -11.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |