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Crawley Town 1–1 Wigan

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Eley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan win36%2.73
Crawley Town win34%2.82
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan +051%1.91
Crawley Town +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Dale Taylor · Wigan
42'⚽Charlie Barker · Crawley Town
45'🟨Jensen Weir · Wigan
52'🟨Owen Dale · Wigan
63'🟨Tyreece John-Jules · Crawley Town

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots27
5On target4
3Corners17
5Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrawley TownWigan
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBroadfield Stadium
coach days140.00779.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.51
elo1470.751497.27
elo momentum (last 5)24.05-19.22
eye test v10.14-0.69
eye trend v10.51-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)56.9049.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.600.65
league points28.0034.00
league rank22.0018.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0075.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4047.40
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.210.35
season ppg0.931.17
shot diff avg (last 5)3.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.40
skill v1-0.29-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
state index-0.08-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.460.16
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80