← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Lincoln win | 24% | 4.17 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Leyton Orient −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.61 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Sonny Perkins · Leyton Orient |
| 20' | 🟨 | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sonny Perkins · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lewis Montsma · Lincoln |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 75' | ⚽ | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Gaughan Group Stadium |
| coach days | 1082.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1642.96 | 1542.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.99 | 4.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.73 |
| league points | 47.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |