← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Exeter win | 29% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Vincent Harper · Exeter |
| 44' | 🟨 | Angus MacDonald · Exeter |
| 54' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 73' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Morrison · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cledara Abbey Stadium |
| coach days | 14.00 | 868.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1460.75 | 1502.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.32 | -51.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| league points | 23.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.67 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |