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Crawley Town 3–1 Stevenage

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stevenage win43%2.28
Crawley Town win30%3.25
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crawley Town +0.2551%1.92
Stevenage +0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town
47'🟨Carl Piergianni · Stevenage
50'⚽Harry Forster · Crawley Town
53'⚽Brandon Hanlan · Stevenage
54'🟨Daniel Phillips · Stevenage
63'🟨Dan Sweeney · Stevenage
87'⚽Junior Quitirna · Crawley Town
89'🟨Louis Thompson · Stevenage
90'⚽Kami Doyle · Crawley Town

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots8
7On target4
2Corners8
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrawley TownStevenage
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBroadfield Stadium
coach days133.00316.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.15
dominance (last 5)0.530.56
elo1449.741558.20
elo momentum (last 5)-3.4813.00
eye test v1-0.59-0.22
eye trend v10.300.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.6062.90
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.500.78
league points24.0040.00
league rank23.0011.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0067.80
possession avg (last 5)54.0048.60
rest days3.203.30
scorer concentration0.210.36
season ppg0.861.43
shot diff avg (last 5)1.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.60
skill v10.40-0.97
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
state index-0.470.23
sterile dominance v10.29-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60