← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 75% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.22 |
| Cambridge win | 9% | 12.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −1.5 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Cambridge −1.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Liam Bennett · Birmingham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Birmingham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nathan Bishop · Cambridge |
| 79' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Birmingham |
| 84' | 🟨 | James Gibbons · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brandon Njoku · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 2 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 255.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1669.35 | 1467.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.61 | 19.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 63.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |