← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 |
| Reading win | 25% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Reading +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 74' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Michael Craig · Reading |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luke Southwood · Bolton |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Harvey Knibbs · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1498.88 | 1568.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.16 | -9.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 41.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 262.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |