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Cambridge 1–1 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win50%1.95
Draw27%3.50
Cambridge win23%4.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe +0.551%1.93
Cambridge +0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Paul Digby · Cambridge
35'⚽Cameron Humphreys · Wycombe
39'🟨Liam Bennett · Cambridge
64'🟥Sonny Bradley · Wycombe
83'🟨Elias Kachunga · Cambridge
83'⚽Josh Stokes · Cambridge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots10
4On target3
5Corners2
14Fouls11
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCambridgeWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.520.76
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCledara Abbey Stadium
coach days0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.58
elo1459.431675.73
elo momentum (last 5)-14.83-10.44
eye test v1-0.93-0.37
eye trend v1-0.080.31
first sub minute (last 10)52.7063.40
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.580.71
league points21.0058.00
league rank23.002.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet12.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.0069.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8051.80
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg0.782.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0013.20
skill v1-1.84-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
state index-0.470.53
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00