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Blackpool 2–2 Charlton

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Parsons

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win39%2.47
Charlton win30%3.16
Draw30%3.16

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton βˆ’0.2554%1.81
Blackpool βˆ’0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.73
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

52'⚽Matt Godden · Charlton
54'🟨Harry Tyrer · Blackpool
54'⚽ (og)Oliver Casey · Charlton
55'🟨James Husband · Blackpool
55'🟨Luke Berry · Charlton
64'🟨Chuks Aneke · Charlton
74'⚽Samuel Silvera · Blackpool
75'🟨Thierry Small · Charlton
87'⚽Niall Ennis · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots13
5On target2
6Corners3
8Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolCharlton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days153.00366.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.540.58
elo1593.631545.39
elo momentum (last 5)33.9019.84
eye test v10.21-0.31
eye trend v10.450.01
first sub minute (last 10)65.0065.00
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v1β€”0.70
league points37.0043.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6067.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2049.60
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg1.371.59
shot diff avg (last 5)1.002.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2013.80
skill v1-0.12-0.94
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
state index0.510.44
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
travel kmβ€”331.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00