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Stevenage 4–1 Exeter

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stevenage win54%1.75
Draw27%3.63
Exeter win19%5.07

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Exeter −0.7551%1.88
Stevenage −0.7549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Eli King · Stevenage
2'⚽ (pen)Josh Magennis · Exeter
11'⚽Eli King · Stevenage
17'⚽Jordan Roberts · Stevenage
24'🟨Nick Freeman · Stevenage
44'🟨Jamie Reid · Stevenage
76'⚽Daniel Kemp · Stevenage
80'⚽Jordan Roberts · Stevenage
90'🟨Cheick Diabaté · Exeter

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots6
8On target3
4Corners4
16Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStevenageExeter
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.570.60
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLamex Stadium
coach days306.00854.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.661.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.20
dominance (last 5)0.590.34
elo1559.241514.51
elo momentum (last 5)15.94-50.47
eye test v1-0.22-0.41
eye trend v10.600.55
first sub minute (last 10)67.0049.50
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v1—0.50
league points37.0032.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0014.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4056.00
rest days3.703.70
scorer concentration0.390.28
season ppg1.421.14
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.607.80
skill v1-0.750.70
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
state index0.41-1.22
sterile dominance v1-0.221.37
threat rate (last 10)0.210.15
threat rate (last 3)0.280.16
threat rate (last 5)0.240.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80