← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Reading win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Burton −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Rumarn Burrell · Burton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Burton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andre Garcia · Reading |
| 69' | ⚽ | Michael Craig · Reading |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rumarn Burrell · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 58.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1518.36 | 1506.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.54 | 7.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |