← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
| Northampton win | 13% | 7.91 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bolton −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.82 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 8' | ⚽ | Liam Shaw · Northampton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Northampton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Liam Shaw · Northampton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Liam Shaw · Bolton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 27.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1521.76 | 1380.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.62 | 8.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 41.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 60.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |