← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 44% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 27% | 32% | 3.61 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Peterboro −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 33' | ⚽ | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Peterboro |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ryan De Havilland · Peterboro |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mahamadou Susoho · Peterboro |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Cian Hayes · Lincoln |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| James Collins · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 451.00 | 755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1485.45 | 1429.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.59 | -24.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 23.83 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |