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Burton 4–2 Rotherham

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rotherham win45%2.11
Draw29%3.32
Burton win26%3.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burton +0.554%1.79
Rotherham +0.546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Louie Sibley · Rotherham
8'⚽Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Burton
27'🟨John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton
39'⚽Ryan Sweeney · Burton
41'⚽Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Burton
47'⚽John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton
61'⚽Andre Green · Rotherham
67'🟨Jack Armer · Burton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
15Shots12
7On target2
6Corners5
11Fouls7
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurtonRotherham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.660.67
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePirelli Stadium
coach days55.00299.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.601.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.002.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.351.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.340.53
elo1502.911573.22
elo momentum (last 5)3.0939.71
eye test v1-0.920.39
eye trend v10.230.35
first sub minute (last 10)64.4059.40
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1—0.80
league points18.0034.00
league rank24.0014.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4062.00
possession avg (last 5)39.6045.20
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg0.691.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.401.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.0015.20
skill v1-1.49-1.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.80
state index-0.310.52
sterile dominance v1-0.38-1.50
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.38
threat rate (last 5)0.180.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80