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Huddersfield 0–1 Bolton

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win44%2.20
Bolton win29%3.39
Draw28%3.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.2551%1.90
Bolton −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton
43'🟨Brodie Spencer · Huddersfield
55'⚽Aaron Collins · Bolton
64'🟨Lasse Sorensen · Huddersfield
64'🟨Szabolcs Schön · Bolton
89'🟨George Johnston · Bolton
90'🟨Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton
90'🟨Aaron Morley · Bolton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots7
1On target3
7Corners1
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldBolton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)2.003.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
coach days269.0024.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.252.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.20
dominance (last 5)0.560.56
elo1559.561546.27
elo momentum (last 5)23.99-27.01
eye test v1-0.050.01
eye trend v1-0.070.15
first sub minute (last 10)41.8063.80
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.800.67
league points48.0038.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6080.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8061.40
rest days7.003.70
scorer concentration0.180.17
season ppg1.921.46
shot diff avg (last 5)5.602.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6014.00
skill v1-0.571.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age25.36—
state index0.43-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.420.87
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
travel km—51.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00