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Cambridge 3–2 Mansfield

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mansfield win45%2.15
Draw28%3.46
Cambridge win27%3.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mansfield +0.2553%1.83
Cambridge +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Michael Morrison · Cambridge
7'⚽ (pen)Josh Stokes · Cambridge
45'🟨Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield
47'⚽Ryan Loft · Cambridge
61'⚽George Maris · Mansfield
72'🟨Paul Digby · Cambridge
90'🟨Jack Stevens · Cambridge
90'🟨Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield
90'⚽ (pen)Lee Gregory · Mansfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots9
4On target3
3Corners3
17Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCambridgeMansfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.76
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCledara Abbey Stadium
coach days330.001546.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.59
elo1452.431615.06
elo momentum (last 5)-37.7816.26
eye test v1-1.020.38
eye trend v1-0.100.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.0056.30
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v1—0.75
league points18.0037.00
league rank23.0010.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet10.004.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.6068.20
possession avg (last 5)44.2045.00
rest days6.906.90
scorer concentration0.270.34
season ppg0.721.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4015.00
skill v1-1.45-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
state index-0.980.52
sterile dominance v1-0.67-1.48
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40