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Mansfield 1–2 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win36%2.66
Mansfield win35%2.78
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe +051%1.90
Mansfield +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Baily Cargill · Mansfield
57'⚽Richard Kone · Wycombe
62'🟨Fred Onyedinma · Wycombe
68'⚽Lucas Akins · Mansfield
87'⚽Garath McCleary · Wycombe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots15
3On target4
5Corners5
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMansfieldWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.66
cards avg (last 5)2.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOne Call Stadium
coach days1539.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.252.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.580.51
elo1625.621666.03
elo momentum (last 5)34.08-14.41
eye test v10.32-0.71
eye trend v10.19-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)53.7064.70
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v10.680.76
league points37.0051.00
league rank9.003.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)43.6051.60
rest days14.0010.80
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg1.612.04
shot diff avg (last 5)4.600.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.209.80
skill v1-1.42-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.20
state index0.740.30
sterile dominance v1-1.400.28
threat rate (last 10)0.280.18
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.330.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00