← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 44% | 2.17 |
| Burton win | 28% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Burton −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Rumarn Burrell · Burton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ben Radcliffe · Crawley Town |
| 55' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Burton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town |
| 72' | ⚽ | Tola Showunmi · Crawley Town |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Crawley Town |
| 81' | 🟨 | Panutche Camará · Crawley Town |
| 86' | 🟨 | Charlie Barker · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| coach days | 109.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1453.22 | 1489.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.17 | -28.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |