← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 |
| Exeter win | 13% | 7.77 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Birmingham −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vincent Harper · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 0 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 231.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1647.52 | 1553.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.49 | 0.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 53.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |