← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
| Northampton win | 20% | 4.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Northampton +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 59' | 🟨 | Timothy Eyoma · Northampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Northampton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 48.00 | 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1505.30 | 1538.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.53 | -30.11 |
| eye test v1 | -1.76 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 14.06 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |