← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 39% | 2.60 |
| Rotherham win | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bolton +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Cameron Humphreys · Rotherham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Mallik Wilks · Rotherham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Reece James · Rotherham |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 86' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 285.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1548.70 | 1577.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.75 | 10.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |