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Wycombe 1–1 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Mather

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win49%1.95
Draw27%3.60
Blackpool win24%4.37

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool βˆ’0.550%1.97
Wycombe βˆ’0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Josh Scowen · Wycombe
26'🟨Alex Hartridge · Wycombe
40'⚽ (pen)Richard Kone · Wycombe
49'🟨James Husband · Blackpool
53'🟨Joe Low · Wycombe
55'🟨Alex Hartridge · Wycombe
55'πŸŸ₯Alex Hartridge Β· Wycombe
90'🟨Hayden Coulson · Blackpool
90'⚽Kyle Joseph · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
4Shots15
1On target3
2Corners6
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWycombeBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.67
cards avg (last 5)1.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueAdams Park
coach days3.00125.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.550.52
elo1604.911491.28
elo momentum (last 5)9.6610.66
eye test v1-0.23-0.28
eye trend v1-0.19-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)64.7065.90
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.78β€”
league points50.0029.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8074.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8048.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.240.24
season ppg2.171.26
shot diff avg (last 5)1.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.60
skill v1-0.75-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
state index0.550.00
sterile dominance v10.15-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00