← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
| Wigan win | 22% | 4.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Wigan +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 18' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Toby Sibbick · Wigan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Birmingham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Willum Thor Willumsson · Birmingham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jason Kerr · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | The Brick Community Stadium |
| coach days | 734.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1518.44 | 1632.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.30 | 23.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 1.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| travel km | — | 130.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |