← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 47% | 2.10 |
| Exeter win | 26% | 3.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bolton +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Szabolcs Schön · Bolton |
| 51' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Demetri Mitchell · Exeter |
| 62' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Bolton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jake Richards · Exeter |
| 81' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Forrester · Bolton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 826.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1564.98 | 1565.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.84 | -22.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |