← EFL League One 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 37% | 2.62 |
| Mansfield win | 35% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Mansfield +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
| 40' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lee Gregory · Mansfield |
| 54' | 🟨 | Szabolcs Schön · Bolton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Bolton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Mansfield |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 1522.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1605.83 | 1573.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.84 | -0.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |