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Burton 2–2 Peterboro

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win43%2.20
Burton win31%3.15
Draw26%3.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro +0.2550%1.93
Burton +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.64
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Kgagelo Chauke · Burton
26'⚽Rumarn Burrell · Burton
42'⚽Archie Collins · Peterboro
77'🟨Max Crocombe · Burton
77'⚽Emmanuel Fernandez · Peterboro
78'🟨Dylan Williams · Burton
80'🟨Chris Conn-Clarke · Peterboro
87'🟨Tomas Kalinauskas · Burton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
6Shots14
3On target6
3Corners11
7Fouls6
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurtonPeterboro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePirelli Stadium
coach days
31.00
731.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.40-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)8.807.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.653.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.19
dominance (last 5)0.250.36
elo1502.821525.79
elo momentum (last 5)-20.25-45.87
eye test v1-1.66-0.28
eye trend v10.35-0.62
first sub minute (last 10)63.4056.30
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.712.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.780.66
league points13.0024.00
league rank24.0018.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.0020.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)33.4055.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.290.28
season ppg0.591.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.60-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)5.608.40
skill v1-2.620.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.803.80
state index-0.87-1.04
sterile dominance v1-0.921.03
threat rate (last 10)0.200.18
threat rate (last 3)0.200.08
threat rate (last 5)0.170.15
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.00