← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Russell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Crawley Town win | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Exeter −0.5 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Panutche Camará · Crawley Town |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jay Bird · Exeter |
| 35' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 37' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Crawley Town |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tola Showunmi · Crawley Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Junior Quitirna · Crawley Town |
| 49' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 60' | ⚽ | Vincent Harper · Exeter |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town |
| 78' | 🟨 | Toby Mullarkey · Crawley Town |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ryan Woods |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| 89' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ | Demetri Mitchell · Exeter |
| coach days | 820.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1575.12 | 1458.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.16 | -0.25 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 30.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |