← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Lincoln win | 29% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Bolton −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 36' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟥 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jay Matete · Bolton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jay Matete · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1642.00 | 424.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1558.35 | 1567.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.36 | -15.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |