← EFL League One 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| Shrewsbury win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Shrewsbury +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
| 9' | ⚽ | Morgan Feeney · Shrewsbury |
| 28' | 🟨 | Taylor Perry · Shrewsbury |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Morgan Feeney · Shrewsbury |
| 61' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 71' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dylan Duffy · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days | 55.00 | 421.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1489.24 | 1577.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.71 | -11.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.21 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |