← EFL League One 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 54% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Northampton win | 22% | 4.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Reading −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Harvey Knibbs · Reading |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Reading |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Charlie Savage · Reading |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mamadi Camara · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days |
| 25.00 |
| 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1483.70 | 1507.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.82 | -56.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.52 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |