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Wigan 2–2 Shrewsbury

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan win55%1.73
Draw27%3.60
Shrewsbury win18%5.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Shrewsbury −0.7550%1.93
Wigan −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Dale Taylor · Wigan
27'🟨Tommi O'Reilly · Shrewsbury
36'🟨Dale Taylor · Wigan
53'⚽Dale Taylor · Wigan
67'⚽ (og)Will Aimson · Shrewsbury
79'🟨Matthew Smith · Wigan
82'🟨Babajide Adeeko · Wigan
84'🟨George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
87'⚽George Lloyd · Shrewsbury
90'🟨Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target3
4Corners3
12Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWiganShrewsbury
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.510.52
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Brick Community Stadium
coach days720.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.31
dominance (last 5)0.430.50
elo1512.911486.81
elo momentum (last 5)20.26-41.74
eye test v1-0.47-0.87
eye trend v10.120.15
first sub minute (last 10)46.0065.20
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.64
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.800.56
league points23.0011.00
league rank16.0024.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0015.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4057.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4045.40
rest days7.107.00
scorer concentration0.420.18
season ppg1.210.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.600.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.409.80
skill v1-0.31-2.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
state index0.07-0.97
sterile dominance v10.24-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80