← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 39% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
| Burton win | 32% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Exeter +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Billy Bodin · Burton |
| 13' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kgagelo Chauke · Burton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Exeter |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jason Sraha · Burton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ciaran Gilligan · Burton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 78' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| Jake Richards · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 20.00 | 812.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1312.25 | 1440.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | -44.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.66 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 26.13 |
| state index | -0.92 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |