← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
| Reading win | 18% | 5.46 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Reading −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Bailey Cadamarteri · Lincoln |
| 37' | 🟥 | Louie Holzman · Reading |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 55' | 🟨 | Harlee Dean · Reading |
| 72' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 416.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1568.40 | 1493.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.54 | 20.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |