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Wrexham 2–2 Cambridge

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win62%1.53
Draw23%4.33
Cambridge win15%6.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham −150%1.93
Cambridge −150%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Elliot Lee · Wrexham
20'⚽Elias Kachunga · Cambridge
27'⚽James McClean · Wrexham
41'🟨James McClean · Wrexham
44'🟨Elias Kachunga · Cambridge
65'⚽Steven Fletcher · Wrexham
88'🟨Lewis Brunt · Wrexham
89'⚽ (pen)Dan N'Lundulu · Cambridge
90'🟨Korey Smith · Cambridge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots14
4On target6
6Corners9
10Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWrexhamCambridge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.730.73
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSTōK Cae Ras
coach days1262.00288.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.010.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.46
elo1668.391506.43
elo momentum (last 5)24.734.10
eye test v1-0.32-0.59
eye trend v10.210.16
first sub minute (last 10)64.0058.80
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.710.70
league points40.0016.00
league rank1.0022.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6060.00
possession avg (last 5)50.0037.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.24
season ppg2.110.89
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v1-0.26-2.39
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.60
state index0.93-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.11-1.63
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80