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Peterboro 4–3 Crawley Town

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win52%1.82
Crawley Town win25%3.91
Draw23%4.23

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crawley Town −0.7553%1.85
Peterboro −0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.48
Under36%2.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town
20'⚽Ricky-Jade Jones · Peterboro
23'⚽Cian Hayes · Peterboro
32'🟨Joy Mukena · Crawley Town
38'⚽Ade Adeyemo · Crawley Town
47'⚽Hector Kyprianou · Peterboro
53'⚽Will Swan · Crawley Town
55'⚽Tola Showunmi · Crawley Town
61'⚽Cian Hayes · Peterboro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots15
10On target7
6Corners7
5Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroCrawley Town
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.61
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.68
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days713.0074.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.584.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.05
dominance (last 5)0.500.45
elo1562.461481.39
elo momentum (last 5)-34.7229.49
eye test v10.11-0.42
eye trend v1-0.220.18
first sub minute (last 10)54.9059.40
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.131.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.690.61
league points21.0019.00
league rank18.0021.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet20.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)58.4055.60
rest days4.7910.80
scorer concentration0.330.19
season ppg1.171.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.608.80
skill v11.150.29
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
state index-0.220.14
sterile dominance v11.061.01
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.13
threat rate (last 5)0.200.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00