← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 46% | 2.06 |
| Barnsley win | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Barnsley +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 23' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
| 31' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Birmingham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Seung Ho Paik · Barnsley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 70' | 🟥 | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sam Cosgrove · Barnsley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Birmingham |
| coach days | 250.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1540.17 | 1599.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.92 | 26.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 72.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |