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Shrewsbury 1–2 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win45%2.11
Shrewsbury win29%3.36
Draw27%3.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool +0.2553%1.85
Shrewsbury +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury
52'⚽ (og)Aaron Pierre · Blackpool
57'⚽Joshua Onomah · Blackpool
66'🟨Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury
82'🟨Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury
86'🟨Alex Gilliead · Shrewsbury
90'🟨Harry Tyrer · Blackpool

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots7
2On target3
7Corners4
12Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricShrewsburyBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.590.71
cards avg (last 5)1.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Croud Meadow
coach days33.0094.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.411.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.470.53
elo1525.911533.68
elo momentum (last 5)-43.82-4.07
eye test v1-0.52-0.28
eye trend v10.14-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)64.0058.90
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.580.64
league points11.0020.00
league rank23.0017.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.0072.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2052.40
rest days11.308.00
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg0.691.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.4014.00
skill v1-1.60-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
state index-0.54-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.99-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60