← EFL League One 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Stockport win | 19% | 5.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stockport −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ethan Pye · Stockport |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ibou Touray · Stockport |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 186.00 | 1129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1583.26 | 1665.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.25 | 19.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 11.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.22 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.49 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |