← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Lincoln win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.16 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Lincoln +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Lincoln |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sean Raggett · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hakeem Odofin · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 246.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1528.61 | 1582.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.92 | -5.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |