⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bolton 3–1 Mansfield

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win56%1.72
Draw24%4.02
Mansfield win20%4.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton −0.7550%1.93
Mansfield −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'⚽Hiram Boateng · Mansfield
46'🟨Jordan Bowery · Mansfield
51'🟨Aaron Collins · Bolton
59'🟨Will Evans · Mansfield
59'🟨Hiram Boateng · Mansfield
70'🟨Hiram Boateng · Mansfield
70'🟥Hiram Boateng · Mansfield
75'⚽Dion Charles · Bolton
80'⚽Victor Adeboyejo · Bolton
85'⚽John McAtee · Bolton
90'🟨Adedeji Oshilaja

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots8
8On target2
6Corners4
7Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoltonMansfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.490.55
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueToughsheet Community Stadium
· Mansfield
coach days1616.001493.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.063.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.520.42
elo1573.491622.18
elo momentum (last 5)21.68-25.88
eye test v10.21-0.72
eye trend v1-0.70-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.1051.80
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.620.85
league points27.0024.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8070.60
possession avg (last 5)59.2044.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.691.60
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.00
skill v10.81-0.96
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
state index0.44-0.09
sterile dominance v10.69-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80