← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 56% | 43% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.02 | fair |
| Mansfield win | 20% | 33% | 4.80 | value: +57% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Mansfield −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 51' | 🟨 | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 59' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 70' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 70' | 🟥 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Victor Adeboyejo · Bolton |
| 85' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1616.00 | 1493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1554.52 | 1478.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.12 | -15.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 30.42 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |