← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 |
| Exeter win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Birmingham +1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Exeter |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Birmingham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kami Doyle · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 787.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1592.69 | 1564.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.10 | 25.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 75.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 1.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |