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Cambridge 1–1 Bolton

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win53%1.80
Draw25%3.85
Cambridge win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cambridge +0.7553%1.85
Bolton +0.7547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨George Thomason · Bolton
44'🟨Brandon Njoku · Cambridge
49'🟥Jubril Okedina · Cambridge
54'🟨Josh Sheehan · Bolton
59'🟨Korey Smith · Cambridge
60'⚽Aaron Collins · Bolton
77'🟨Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton
88'🟨Nathan Baxter · Bolton
89'⚽Sullay Kaikai · Cambridge
90'🟨Gethin Jones · Bolton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots13
3On target4
4Corners5
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCambridgeBolton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.790.56
cards avg (last 5)1.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCledara Abbey Stadium
coach days270.001609.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.634.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.470.47
elo1505.781573.72
elo momentum (last 5)20.879.28
eye test v1-0.63-0.17
eye trend v1-0.18-0.64
first sub minute (last 10)62.5061.60
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.69
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.670.61
league points12.0026.00
league rank22.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.6075.80
possession avg (last 5)42.8050.80
rest days3.203.30
scorer concentration0.170.18
season ppg0.801.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.60
skill v1-1.73-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
state index-0.110.17
sterile dominance v1-0.93-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80