← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Z. Kennard-Kettle
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnsley win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 |
| Reading win | 21% | 4.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnsley −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Reading −0.75 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand